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Twins at Padres



San Diego pulled ahead for good in the seventh when France singled home Machado, and the Padres held on for a 7-5 win over Minnesota. Merrill did the heavy lifting at the plate, going 2-for-3 with a homer and two RBI, while San Diego's pitching staff piled up nine strikeouts to the Twins' three. The win pushes San Diego to 70-60 and drops Minnesota to 63-67, with the Padres now up 2-0 in the season series.
France's single to right in the seventh brought home Machado with the go-ahead run, and the Padres never let it go.
Merrill led the way for San Diego, finishing 2-for-3 with a home run and two RBI.
The Padres' pitching staff dominated the strikeout column, fanning nine Twins hitters compared to just three punchouts by Minnesota's arms.
The Padres sit 2nd in the NL West, 8½ games back, coming off a win, 6-4 over their last 10. The Twins sit 3rd in the AL Central, 6½ games back, losers of 2 straight, 4-6 over their last 10.
The Padres are up next at Rays (Aug 28-30). The Twins are up next home vs White Sox (Aug 28-30).
We ranked every clip from this game by how much it swung the win probability, kept the biggest, and play them back in the order they happened. Pick any play to jump straight to it.
Ranked by win probability added: how far each player's plays moved this game's odds, not how their box-score line reads. A single with the bases loaded in the ninth outranks a home run in a blowout, because that is what actually decided it.



Padres to winHit
SD -1.5 · 57%HeldGraded against the closing line across 6 books.
Runs by inning across the top, then every batter and pitcher underneath. The pills switch clubs; the totals column is each side’s own line, not a comparison.
| Inn | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MINMinnesota Twins | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
| SDSan Diego Padres | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Luke Keaschall | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | .274 | .365 | .384 |
Byron Buxton | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | .251 | .316 | .513 |
Josh Bell | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | .254 | .320 | .426 |
Ryan Jeffers | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .282 | .386 | .489 |
Kody Clemens | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | .239 | .295 | .469 |
Royce Lewis | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | .236 | .307 | .411 |
Trevor Larnach | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | .263 | .347 | .413 |
Ryan Kreidler | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .228 | .281 | .371 |
Brooks Lee | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | .247 | .301 | .428 |
Kaelen Culpepper | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | .286 | .340 | .452 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dean Kremer | 5.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 101-59 | 5.22 | 101 |
A.J. Minter | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8-6 | 1.95 | 8 |
| Andrew Morris | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19-15 | 3.43 | 19 |
Tommy Nance | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 27-20 | 3.23 | 27 |
Every plate appearance as it happened, newest first, with the scoring plays called out. Baseball Savant gamefeed.
| Inn | Play | Win probability | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| T9 | SD 100.0 | 1.2 | |
| T9 | SD 98.8 | 2.5 | |
| T9 | SD 96.3 | 3.9 | |
| B8 | SD 92.4 | 1.2 | |
| B8 | SD 93.6 | 1.2 | |
| B8 | SD 94.8 | 6.1 | |
| B8 | SD 88.7 | 2.0 | |
| B8 | SD 86.7 | 1.9 |
Win probability after each plate appearance, with the side in front named. Swing is how far that plate appearance moved it. Plays that scored a run are set in bold. Baseball Savant gamefeed.
The full ladder, with both clubs marked.