San Diego Padres vs New York Mets — Padres win 5-2, Aug 18, 2026

Our model favors New York 5-4, though it's a low-confidence call. The edge starts on the mound, where Zac Thornton's 2.78 ERA outshines Robbie Ray's 3.28.

San Diego has won 4 of its last 5, while New York rolls in on a 3-game winning streak. Both clubs arrive with momentum, so neither trend cancels the other out entirely.

Machado paces the Padres with 23 home runs, and Soto leads the Mets with 21. Both middle-of-the-order bats give their lineups a consistent source of pop.

New York leads this series 2-1. A win tonight would put the Mets in position to close it out.

The Padres hold a clear edge on the bases, with 124 stolen bases to the Mets' 64. That gap gives San Diego more ways to manufacture runs beyond the long ball.

Ray leans on his changeup as a put-away pitch, generating a 28% whiff rate, while working mainly off his cutter and four-seamer. Thornton counters with a curveball that draws whiffs at a 40% clip, setting up behind a sinker and four-seamer.

Machado also leads San Diego with 70 RBI, and Bichette tops the Mets with 62. Both hitters have been the ones driving in runs for their respective sides.