Houston Astros vs New York Yankees

atAstros at Yankees

Top 5th

Live read

We have the Yankees favored 5-3, with the line sitting at NYY -154 and the total at 8. Backing that lean is a pitching mismatch: Gerrit Cole (3.11 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) takes the mound against Hayden Wesneski (4.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), giving New York the arm advantage on paper.
The Astros have won 2 of their last 5 while the Yankees have taken 3 of 5, a mild edge in recent form that lines up with our lean. Both clubs enter with something to build off, but New York's stretch has trended the right way.
Power bats headline each lineup, with Y. Alvarez pacing Houston at 36 home runs and B. Rice leading the Yankees with 35. If either slugger gets going, it could be the swing that decides the middle innings.
This series sits tied at 1-1, so tonight breaks the deadlock. Neither side has separated itself yet, which puts extra weight on which starter controls the game longest.
The Yankees hold a clear edge on the bases, with 128 stolen bases against Houston's 40. That gap suggests New York can manufacture extra outs and pressure in a way the Astros' running game has not matched.
Wesneski leans on his changeup as a put-away pitch at a 35% whiff rate, working off a four-seam and changeup combination, while Cole's curveball is even sharper at 67% whiff, backed by a heavy sinker mix. If Cole's curveball is working, it becomes the toughest matchup Houston's hitters face all night.

How our call is holding upToo close to call

Yankees trail 0–1; they still have to answer.
Live model has NYY at 42% (we called it high confidence).
Quieter than we projected, under our 8-total pace.

What we calledTop 5th

HOU3

NYY5

Win probability, right now

Live win probability, updated on every play.

Houston Astros

58%

New York Yankees

42%

Leverage 0.6 · low

Win probabilityNYY win %

Paredes singled to right, Peña scored.HOU +12%
Lombard Jr. struck out looking.HOU +6%
Jones struck out swinging.HOU +6%

Line score and box score

Runs by inning across the top, then every batter and pitcher underneath. The pills switch clubs; the totals column is each side’s own line, not a comparison.

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	R	H	E
HOUHouston Astros	0	0	1	0	0	1	3	0
NYYNew York Yankees	0	0	0	0		0	2	0

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
Jeremy Pena	0-1	1	1	0	0	1	6	.282	.336	.470
Yordan Alvarez	0-2	2	0	0	0	1	6	.321	.435	.612
Isaac Paredes	2-2	2	0	2	1	0	4	.262	.358	.427
Jose Altuve	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	7	.246	.310	.399
Daulton Varsho	0-2	2	0	0	0	1	9	.235	.298	.372
Christian Walker	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	4	.230	.305	.430
Yainer Diaz	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	3	.259	.288	.418
Taylor Trammell	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	5	.207	.295	.368
Cam Smith	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	.215	.282	.390

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
Hayden Wesneski	4.0	2	0	0	1	4	0	65-41	3.69	65

League standings

The full ladder, with both clubs marked.

AL East

#ClubW-LPCTStreak

1Tampa Bay Rays79-54.594W1

2New York Yankees75-57.568W1

3Boston Red Sox73-60.549L1

4Toronto Blue Jays65-69.485W1

5Baltimore Orioles65-69.485L1

AL Central

#ClubW-LPCTStreak

1Chicago White Sox70-63.526W2

2Cleveland Guardians68-66.507W7

3Minnesota Twins64-70.478L2

4Detroit Tigers62-71.466L1

5Kansas City Royals59-75.440L1

AL West

#ClubW-LPCTStreak

1Houston Astros66-67.496L1

2Texas Rangers66-68.493L2

3Seattle Mariners64-70.478L1

4Oakland Athletics53-81.396W2

5Los Angeles Angels52-82.388L4

NL East

#ClubW-LPCTStreak

1Atlanta Braves78-55.586W3

2Philadelphia Phillies74-60.552W1

3Miami Marlins68-66.507W1

4Washington Nationals63-73.463W1

5New York Mets60-73.451L1

NL Central

#ClubW-LPCTStreak

1Milwaukee Brewers82-51.617W1

2Chicago Cubs76-58.567L2

3St. Louis Cardinals67-68.496W1

4Pittsburgh Pirates65-70.481L1

5Cincinnati Reds63-71.470W1

NL West

#ClubW-LPCTStreak

1Los Angeles Dodgers80-53.602L2

2San Diego Padres72-62.537W1

3Arizona Diamondbacks71-63.530W2

4San Francisco Giants54-79.406L1

5Colorado Rockies52-82.388L1

Astros at Yankees

Houston

Astros

New York

Yankees

Post Game SummaryStat Savant

atAstros at Yankees

Top 5th

Live read

We have the Yankees favored 5-3, with the line sitting at NYY -154 and the total at 8. Backing that lean is a pitching mismatch: Gerrit Cole (3.11 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) takes the mound against Hayden Wesneski (4.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), giving New York the arm advantage on paper.
The Astros have won 2 of their last 5 while the Yankees have taken 3 of 5, a mild edge in recent form that lines up with our lean. Both clubs enter with something to build off, but New York's stretch has trended the right way.
Power bats headline each lineup, with Y. Alvarez pacing Houston at 36 home runs and B. Rice leading the Yankees with 35. If either slugger gets going, it could be the swing that decides the middle innings.
This series sits tied at 1-1, so tonight breaks the deadlock. Neither side has separated itself yet, which puts extra weight on which starter controls the game longest.
The Yankees hold a clear edge on the bases, with 128 stolen bases against Houston's 40. That gap suggests New York can manufacture extra outs and pressure in a way the Astros' running game has not matched.
Wesneski leans on his changeup as a put-away pitch at a 35% whiff rate, working off a four-seam and changeup combination, while Cole's curveball is even sharper at 67% whiff, backed by a heavy sinker mix. If Cole's curveball is working, it becomes the toughest matchup Houston's hitters face all night.

How our call is holding upToo close to call

Yankees trail 0–1; they still have to answer.
Live model has NYY at 42% (we called it high confidence).
Quieter than we projected, under our 8-total pace.

What we calledTop 5th

HOU3

NYY5

Win probability, right now

Live win probability, updated on every play.

Houston Astros

58%

New York Yankees

42%

Leverage 0.6 · low

Win probabilityNYY win %

Paredes singled to right, Peña scored.HOU +12%
Lombard Jr. struck out looking.HOU +6%
Jones struck out swinging.HOU +6%

Line score and box score

Runs by inning across the top, then every batter and pitcher underneath. The pills switch clubs; the totals column is each side’s own line, not a comparison.

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	R	H	E
HOUHouston Astros	0	0	1	0	0	1	3	0
NYYNew York Yankees	0	0	0	0		0	2	0

Hitting

Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG
Jeremy Pena	0-1	1	1	0	0	1	6	.282	.336	.470
Yordan Alvarez	0-2	2	0	0	0	1	6	.321	.435	.612
Isaac Paredes	2-2	2	0	2	1	0	4	.262	.358	.427
Jose Altuve	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	7	.246	.310	.399
Daulton Varsho	0-2	2	0	0	0	1	9	.235	.298	.372
Christian Walker	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	4	.230	.305	.430
Yainer Diaz	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	3	.259	.288	.418
Taylor Trammell	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	5	.207	.295	.368
Cam Smith	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	.215	.282	.390

Pitching

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
Hayden Wesneski	4.0	2	0	0	1	4	0	65-41	3.69	65

League standings

The full ladder, with both clubs marked.

AL East

#ClubW-LPCTStreak

1Tampa Bay Rays79-54.594W1

2New York Yankees75-57.568W1

3Boston Red Sox73-60.549L1

4Toronto Blue Jays65-69.485W1

5Baltimore Orioles65-69.485L1

AL Central

#ClubW-LPCTStreak

1Chicago White Sox70-63.526W2

2Cleveland Guardians68-66.507W7

3Minnesota Twins64-70.478L2

4Detroit Tigers62-71.466L1

5Kansas City Royals59-75.440L1

AL West

#ClubW-LPCTStreak

1Houston Astros66-67.496L1

2Texas Rangers66-68.493L2

3Seattle Mariners64-70.478L1

4Oakland Athletics53-81.396W2

5Los Angeles Angels52-82.388L4

NL East

#ClubW-LPCTStreak

1Atlanta Braves78-55.586W3

2Philadelphia Phillies74-60.552W1

3Miami Marlins68-66.507W1

4Washington Nationals63-73.463W1

5New York Mets60-73.451L1

NL Central

#ClubW-LPCTStreak

1Milwaukee Brewers82-51.617W1

2Chicago Cubs76-58.567L2

3St. Louis Cardinals67-68.496W1

4Pittsburgh Pirates65-70.481L1

5Cincinnati Reds63-71.470W1

NL West

#ClubW-LPCTStreak

1Los Angeles Dodgers80-53.602L2

2San Diego Padres72-62.537W1

3Arizona Diamondbacks71-63.530W2

4San Francisco Giants54-79.406L1

5Colorado Rockies52-82.388L1

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees — live score & stats

Live read

Win probability, right now

Line score and box score

League standings

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees — live score & stats

Live read

Win probability, right now

Line score and box score

League standings